Will Ned Lamont be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Ned Lamont be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Lamont as a heavy favorite at 86¢ with extremely asymmetric payoffs—the No side offers a 1,031% risk-adjusted yield compared to just 32.1% for Yes, reflecting the low probability but high payout if an upset occurs.
Analysis
The market is pricing Lamont as a heavy favorite at 86¢ with extremely asymmetric payoffs—the No side offers a 1,031% risk-adjusted yield compared to just 32.1% for Yes, reflecting the low probability but high payout if an upset occurs. Volume is thin at $64 in 24 hours against $553 open interest, and the 263% realized volatility with a 4.37 vol ratio suggests significant price swings despite the tight 1¢ spread, indicating uncertainty beneath the surface consensus. With 201 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 6, this market could experience sharp repricing if primary challengers emerge or Lamont faces unexpected political headwinds.
Also on polymarket at 87¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Ned Lamont wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Connecticut Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVCTNOMD-26-NLAM yes 100