Will Susan Bysiewicz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 86% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
86%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ned Lamont be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut
Will Ned Lamont be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?: Ned Lamont
KXGOVCTNOMD-26-NLAM
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Susan Bysiewicz will secure the Democratic nomination for Connecticut governor. At 93%, the market suggests near-consensus around her candidacy, though still accounting for roughly a 7% chance of an alternative outcome. The high probability likely reflects her current position as Lieutenant Governor and existing visibility within Connecticut Democratic circles. The market would move lower if a stronger challenger entered the race or if unfavorable news emerged about her record. The primary election or party endorsement process would represent the key catalyst for resolving this prediction, as it would determine whether her frontrunner status translates into actual nomination.
- ›Bysiewicz's incumbency as Lieutenant Governor provides organizational advantages and name recognition among Democratic voters
- ›No announced primary challengers of comparable stature have emerged as of May 2026, supporting the high probability
- ›Connecticut's Democratic primary process and official nomination timeline will determine when this prediction resolves
- ›Significant new scandals or candidate announcements could shift the probability materially downward from current levels
- ›Early polling data among likely Democratic primary voters would provide concrete evidence supporting or contradicting the 93% estimate
What moved the line
- Jun 23Ned Lamont↓4pp90→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Ned Lamont↑3pp87→90¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (86% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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