Will Susan Bysiewicz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Susan Bysiewicz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical 5883% implied yield on a Yes position reflects the tiny contract size rather than genuine opportunity, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant binary outcome potential given the 201-day timeframe to the 2026 nomination process. The flat 7-day price action at 3¢ indicates minimal recent trading activity, so any position would face substantial execution challenges.
Resolution rules
If Susan Bysiewicz wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Connecticut Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVCTNOMD-26-SBYS yes 100