Will Dan Cox be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maryland?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will Dan Cox be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maryland?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread and relatively modest $1,188 open interest, suggesting low liquidity for what should be a politically significant event.
Analysis
This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread and relatively modest $1,188 open interest, suggesting low liquidity for what should be a politically significant event. The price has risen 7 points over the past week to 52¢, implying roughly even odds, though the asymmetric implied yields (57.2% Yes vs. 72.8% No) indicate the No side is pricing in substantially more tail risk. With 566 days until the 2026 Maryland Republican primary, the market appears fairly valued but illiquid, making it difficult to establish meaningful positions.
Also on polymarket at 57¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If Dan Cox wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maryland Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMDNOMR-26-DCOX yes 100