Will Cinde Warmington be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will Cinde Warmington be the Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. The market is pricing in a strong consensus around Warmington's nomination odds at 82%, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (16.1% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a strong consensus around Warmington's nomination odds at 82%, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (16.1% for Yes vs. 258.1% for No) signal that No-side bettors demand substantial compensation for taking the underdog position, suggesting genuine uncertainty beneath the headline probability. With only $2,290 in open interest and $6.46 in daily volume, liquidity is thin enough that the 82¢ price could shift meaningfully on modest order flow, and the recent 7-point rally from 75¢ indicates recent momentum favoring her nomination chances. The 566-day timeframe provides ample time for political developments to reshape the race, though the neutral regime score suggests current market conditions lack strong directional conviction despite the high Yes price.
Also on polymarket at 75¢(Δ +6¢)
Resolution rules
If Cinde Warmington wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 New Hampshire Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVNHNOMD-26-CWAR yes 100