Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Cinde Warmington is priced at an 80% probability to win the Democratic primary, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $9,277 in open interest, suggesting limited conviction behind this price.
Analysis
Cinde Warmington is priced at an 80% probability to win the Democratic primary, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $9,277 in open interest, suggesting limited conviction behind this price. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—63.4% for Yes versus 1014% for No—combined with a realized volatility of 1458% and cliff risk index of 4, indicates this market is highly unstable and potentially mispriced due to thin trading. The 5-point price appreciation over seven days (75¢ to 80¢) may reflect genuine information arrival or simply low-liquidity price noise, making this contract risky for position-taking with 144 days until resolution.
Also on kalshi at 77¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Trade
sf trade 0x1b427a1cc93c7d7be6814173de740735e0d1c321a8bdfc9242bde26c19779bad yes 100