Will Gregg Hull be the Republican nominee for Governor in New Mexico?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will Gregg Hull be the Republican nominee for Governor in New Mexico?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,035 open interest, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,035 open interest, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 222.4% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic sign of thin markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns, though the risk-adjusted yield of 111% suggests more moderate true expected value. With over 200 days until expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an actively traded contract.
Also on polymarket at 77¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Gregg Hull wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 New Mexico Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVNMNOMR-26-GHUL yes 100