Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (539% realized) and exceptionally high implied yields (1010% on Yes), suggesting either very thin liquidity or significant uncertainty about a relatively unknown candidate with 46 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (539% realized) and exceptionally high implied yields (1010% on Yes), suggesting either very thin liquidity or significant uncertainty about a relatively unknown candidate with 46 days to expiry. The modest $319.59 daily volume against $20.6k open interest indicates low liquidity that could amplify price swings, and the 3¢ spread is reasonable but the 1.57 vol ratio suggests elevated uncertainty. The neutral regime and steady 45¢-to-44¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market hasn't received major new information recently, though the 1.4 info arrivals per hour indicate ongoing attention to this primary race.
Also on kalshi at 75¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x120b15af9f5f44bf673580aec6e6e555f8bed923e5d3979fcda2617c154ad3d1 yes 100