Will Carnita Atwater be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Carnita Atwater be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing August 6, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $391 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $391 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 1455% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of thin markets where even small trades can create outsized percentage returns, though the 6¢ bid-ask spread represents a substantial 46% gap relative to the mid-price. With 477 days until expiry and a modest 19 cliff risk index, there's time for more information to emerge about Atwater's viability as a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Tennessee, but traders should expect significant price volatility given the near-zero liquidity.
Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Carnita Atwater wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTNNOMD-26-CATW yes 100