Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?

Carnita Atwater's 11¢ price reflects a significant underdog position in the 2026 Tennessee Democratic gubernatorial primary, with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2660% on the Yes side suggesting minimal market confidence in her candidacy. The market shows modest activity with $20.15 in 24-hour volume against $17.6k open interest, and a notable 37.5% price surge over seven days (8¢ to 11¢) paired with extreme 702% realized volatility indicates either new information about her campaign or thin liquidity driving outsized moves. With 111 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 8, this appears to be a speculative position on a long-shot candidate rather than a liquid consensus market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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