Will the U.S. pay between $100 billion and $299 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the U.S. pay between $100 billion and $299 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 22, 2029. The market is pricing an extremely low probability (5%) for a $100-299 billion Greenland acquisition, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a massive 1,167% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal 24-hour volume of $192.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low probability (5%) for a $100-299 billion Greenland acquisition, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a massive 1,167% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal 24-hour volume of $192. With over $63,000 in open interest and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet where believers are willing to accept illiquidity and a 2¢ spread for potential outsized returns, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest limited conviction among traders.
Resolution rules
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $100 billion to $299 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-199B yes 100