Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
19 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
514 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Republicans, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P6
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 26 percentage points?: Republicans, 26+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P26
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Democrats, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P4
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P8
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P4
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Republicans, 30+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P30
Cluster 2
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXELECTIONBILL-AUG01
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01
Cluster 3
Will Democrats win at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation allocating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection in fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 16% probability suggests this outcome is considered unlikely at this point in the year. The low probability likely reflects that we are already three months into the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025, leaving limited time for legislative action. Major spending bills typically pass during specific windows—often in advance of fiscal deadlines or as part of broader appropriations packages. The primary driver of the current level is procedural timing; funding legislation must navigate committee consideration, floor debate, and presidential approval within a compressed timeframe. A significant catalyst would be Congress scheduling markup or floor votes on appropriations bills in May, or broader spending legislation being introduced that includes border security funding.
- ›The fiscal year began October 1, 2025, meaning the May 1 deadline leaves only 7 months for legislative action, a tight window for appropriations bills
- ›Appropriations historically pass as omnibus packages combining multiple agencies rather than standalone bills, making the probability dependent on broader budget negotiations
- ›Congressional schedule and committee activity in May 2026 will indicate whether border funding is a priority item being actively moved toward passage
- ›Any prior passage of spending bills in FY2026 without CBP funding would reduce the likelihood of a last-minute $1B+ appropriation before May 1
- ›The political composition of Congress and executive preferences regarding border security funding influence whether such legislation receives floor time and support
What moved the line
- May 31Democrats, 9+ pts↓16pp43→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Democrats, 9+ pts↑8pp27→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Democrats, 9+ pts↑5pp35→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Democrats, 4+ pts↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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