Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
17 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
408 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Cooper, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Turek, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Brown, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Flanagan, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Brown, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Brown, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P4
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?: Rogers, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Collins, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?: Ossoff, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Husted, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 26 percentage points?: Hageman, 26+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P26
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Whatley, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Husted, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P4
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Hageman, 30+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P30
Cluster 2
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Democrats win at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Congress will pass legislation providing at least $1 billion in appropriations to U.S. Customs and Border Protection for fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 31% probability reflects that such funding has already been determined or allocated earlier in the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025. The main driver of this low probability is timing: most appropriations bills are typically passed during the previous fiscal year or in early months of the current one. By July 2026, the deadline date of May 1 has already passed, making this a historical question rather than a forward-looking one. The key factors are whether appropriations were actually enacted before May 1, 2026, and whether the amount met the $1 billion threshold specified in the contract.
- ›Whether any CBP appropriations legislation passed Congress between October 1, 2025 and May 1, 2026
- ›Whether final enacted appropriations for CBP in FY2026 met or exceeded the $1 billion threshold
- ›The status of omnibus or continuing appropriations bills that would have covered this period
- ›Congressional budget negotiations and any delays or conflicts that may have postponed appropriations passage
- ›The distinction between appropriations authority versus actual spending allocations in enacted legislation
What moved the line
- Sep 17Brown, 4+ pts↓30pp39→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Brown, 6+ pts↑15pp5→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Brown, 4+ pts↑14pp5→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Brown, 6+ pts↓10pp15→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Flanagan, 11+ pts↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
- Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primarylast 94% · 19d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 68d
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026last 97% · 103d
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 106d
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 120d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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