Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 22, 2029
944 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will the U.S. pay between $” vs “Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. pay between $
Will the U.S. pay between $600 billion and $899 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?: $600 billion to $899 billion
KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-749B
Will the U.S. pay between $100 billion and $299 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?: $100 billion to $299 billion
KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-199B
Cluster 2
Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. will not acquire Greenland before Trump's term ends in January 2029. The 35% probability implies traders estimate roughly a one-in-three chance of some form of acquisition occurring. The significant 25-percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about the likelihood: Kalshi traders (40%) price it higher than Polymarket traders (15%), possibly reflecting different assessments of Trump's negotiating capacity or Denmark's willingness to sell. Key drivers include Trump's publicly stated interest in acquiring Greenland, Denmark's firm constitutional and political opposition, and the complexity of executing such a transaction through diplomatic or other means. Resolution will depend on whether any formal acquisition, transfer agreement, or territorial change occurs before the term concludes.
- ›Trump administration officials have publicly discussed Greenland acquisition interest, but Denmark's government and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale proposals
- ›U.S.-Denmark diplomatic relations and NATO alliance considerations create structural barriers to forced acquisition but leave negotiated purchase theoretically possible
- ›The large inter-venue probability gap (25pp) suggests material disagreement among sophisticated traders about feasibility, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- ›No formal acquisition mechanism, timeline, or negotiation framework has been publicly announced as of mid-2026
- ›Polymarket's much lower probability (15%) despite high geopolitical volatility may reflect skepticism about transaction likelihood versus Kalshi's higher estimate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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