Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secret.... This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market prices a 60% probability of at least one cabinet impeachment over the next 625 days, offering a 49.8% implied yield on the Yes side—notably lower than the 68.6% yield on No, suggesting the market may be overweighting the Yes outcome relative to historical impeachment frequency.
Analysis
This market prices a 60% probability of at least one cabinet impeachment over the next 625 days, offering a 49.8% implied yield on the Yes side—notably lower than the 68.6% yield on No, suggesting the market may be overweighting the Yes outcome relative to historical impeachment frequency. The extremely thin liquidity ($8.13 daily volume against $5.3k open interest) and wide 6¢ spread indicate low confidence in price discovery, making this contract vulnerable to sharp moves on breaking political news rather than fundamental reassessment.
Resolution rules
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIMPEACHCABINET-28JAN01 yes 100