What is the current probability for "Will Punjab Kings win the IPL?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 15, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Punjab Kings win the IPL?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1633.6% and 272.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Punjab Kings win the IPL?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Punjab Kings win the IPL?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Punjab Kings win the IPL?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Punjab Kings' odds have compressed sharply from 16¢ to 23¢ over seven days, now settling at 25¢ with a 25% implied probability, suggesting recent negative sentiment or updated forecasts about their championship prospects.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 30/31¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $19,224.61·OI $531,183.81·Closes Jun 15, 2026·55d remaining

KXIPL-26-PBKS

7-day price279 snapshots · 125 regime

33¢29¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Punjab Kings' odds have compressed sharply from 16¢ to 23¢ over seven days, now settling at 25¢ with a 25% implied probability, suggesting recent negative sentiment or updated forecasts about their championship prospects. The extreme 2050% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the long-tail payoff structure typical of sports championship markets, though the 592% realized volatility and 3.0 cliff risk index indicate substantial price instability that could create execution challenges for traders. With $426,919 open interest and $63,165 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate but the tight 2¢ spread suggests reasonable tradability despite the 60-day runway to the June 2026 expiry.

Resolution rules

If the Punjab Kings are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1633.6%

IY (No) 272.5%

Adj IY 1521%

CRI 2

RV 342%

VR 0.86

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1633.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	272.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1521%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	342%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:14:45 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPL-26-PBKS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →