What is the current probability for "Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the IPL?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 15, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the IPL?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2510.1% and 177.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the IPL?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the IPL?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the IPL?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Royal Challengers Bengaluru's IPL championship odds have surged 41% over seven days to 25¢, suggesting recent positive sentiment shift, though the 1939% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects extreme illiquidity relative to the $421k open interest and modest $24.8k daily volume.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 21/23¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $12,462.05·OI $482,034.05·Closes Jun 15, 2026·55d remaining

KXIPL-26-RCB

7-day price263 snapshots · 127 regime

28¢21¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's IPL championship odds have surged 41% over seven days to 25¢, suggesting recent positive sentiment shift, though the 1939% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects extreme illiquidity relative to the $421k open interest and modest $24.8k daily volume. The neutral regime with 416% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 3 indicates significant uncertainty remains, making this a speculative position with substantial execution risk despite the tight 1¢ spread.

Resolution rules

If the Royal Challengers Bengaluru are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2510.1%

IY (No) 177.4%

Adj IY 2271%

CRI 4

RV 254%

VR 0.52

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2510.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	177.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2271%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	254%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:22:30 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPL-26-RCB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →