Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Brex IPO market is pricing in just a 4% probability despite over two years until expiration, creating a notable 1¢ cross-venue gap with Polymarket (5¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the Polymarket side.
Analysis
This Brex IPO market is pricing in just a 4% probability despite over two years until expiration, creating a notable 1¢ cross-venue gap with Polymarket (5¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the Polymarket side. The astronomical 4552.7% implied yield on Yes reflects the extreme illiquidity—only $8,341 open interest with zero 24-hour volume—making this a highly speculative position rather than a reliable probability estimate. The moderate cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime indicate structural stability, but traders should be cautious given the thin market depth and wide spread relative to the contract's notional value.
Resolution rules
If Brex confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-BREX yes 100