What is the current probability for "When will Deel IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2027. 374 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Deel IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 263.7% and 36.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Deel IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Deel IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that When will Deel IPO?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $78 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 44¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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36¢

Bid/Ask 27/36¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $13.44·OI $78·Closes May 1, 2027·374d remaining

KXIPODEEL-27MAY01

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

29¢27¢ current

Apr 827¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $78 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 44¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—247.5% for Yes versus 37.4% for No—suggest the market may be mispriced given Deel's private valuation trajectory, though the wide 9¢ spread reflects uncertainty and low trading activity. With nearly 380 days to expiry and a moderate 3 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative, illiquid market where any meaningful trade could significantly move prices.

Resolution rules

If Deel confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 263.7%

IY (No) 36.1%

Adj IY 88%

CRI 3

Overround 0.8%

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	263.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	36.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	88%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:06:45 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODEEL-27MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →