Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of April?

The 90¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability for MSFT closing above $345 by month-end, yet the market shows critical warning signs: zero 24-hour volume, a wide 19¢ spread, and an absurd 29,081% implied yield on the "No" side suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. With only 11 days to expiration and the price having dropped 8¢ over the past week, the high cliff risk index (9) indicates significant tail risk, making this market unreliable for serious positioning despite the ostensibly confident pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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