What is the current probability for "When will Ramp IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Ramp IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 556.6% and 20.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Ramp IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Ramp IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that When will Ramp IPO?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $34 open interest, making the 548.9% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading rather than actionable.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 16/25¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $35·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPORAMP-27APR01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $34 open interest, making the 548.9% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading rather than actionable. The 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the 24¢ price, and the stark contrast between Yes yield (548.9%) and No yield (19.9%) suggests the market may be mispriced due to thin trading rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment. With 349 days to expiry and a moderate 5 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where any trade could significantly move prices.

Resolution rules

If Ramp confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 556.6%

IY (No) 20.2%

Adj IY 278%

CRI 5

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	556.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	278%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:59:17 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPORAMP-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →