When will Ramp IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that When will Ramp IPO?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 505.5% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 18.3% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of IPO probability relative to risk-free rates.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 505.5% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 18.3% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of IPO probability relative to risk-free rates. The $26 open interest and $0 daily volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 30¢ price potentially unreliable; the 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the contract value. With 379 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market carries execution risk typical of early-stage fintech IPO bets, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest limited recent conviction from the few participants.
Resolution rules
If Ramp confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPORAMP-27MAY01 yes 100