What is the current probability for "When will Starlink IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Starlink IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 954.3% and 11.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Starlink IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Starlink IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that When will Starlink IPO?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $5.7k open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market consensus.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 10/12¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $5,697.24·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPOSTARLINK-27APR01

7-day price29 snapshots · 2 regime

11¢10¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $5.7k open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market consensus. The 940.8% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and reflects the low absolute price rather than genuine opportunity, while the sharp 7-day rally from 3¢ to 10¢ suggests recent positioning rather than fundamental conviction. With a Cliff Risk Index of 9 and 349 days to expiry, this appears to be a speculative position in a low-liquidity contract where the wide 1¢ spread masks significant uncertainty about Starlink's actual IPO timeline.

Resolution rules

If Starlink confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 954.3%

IY (No) 11.8%

Adj IY 477%

CRI 9

Overround -0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	954.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	477%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:34:53 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSTARLINK-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →