Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 411.5% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days until expiry and a high Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a meaningful consensus forecast on whether Italy's Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will exceed -0.6%. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, further suggesting this is a dead market unlikely to attract late trading activity before resolution.

Resolution rules

If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade