Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.8%?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a 10¢ spread, making the 0% price unreliable despite the massive 340.4% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a 10¢ spread, making the 0% price unreliable despite the massive 340.4% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, the market is highly vulnerable to sharp repricing once actual Q1 2026 Italian GDP data approaches release, suggesting current pricing severely underestimates the probability of growth above -0.8% YoY. The asymmetric 22,281% implied yield on No indicates the market is essentially defunct and should not be traded without significant caution.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T-0.8 yes 100