Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%
Leader sits at 80% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.8%
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above -0.6%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$45
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T2.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.8%?: Above -0.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.2
Analysis
This market is pricing a 94% probability that Italy's year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.8%, meaning traders expect Italy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects modest confidence in stabilization rather than robust growth—the spread of contracts shows meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will reach 0%, with prices declining from 89¢ at that threshold to 94¢ at -0.8%. Italy's economic trajectory depends heavily on eurozone monetary policy, domestic consumption patterns, and labor market resilience. The official Q2 2026 GDP release from ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics), typically published in late August 2026, will resolve this question. Until then, traders are weighting recent inflation trends, European Central Bank policy signals, and Italian employment data as proxies for growth expectations.
- ›Current market pricing implies ~94% confidence in avoiding GDP contraction below -0.8% YoY, but only 89% confidence in growth above 0%—a 5-point spread indicating material uncertainty about the direction of growth
- ›Q2 2026 GDP data will be published by ISTAT in late August 2026, making this a medium-term forecast with roughly 10-12 weeks of economic data accumulation before resolution
- ›Italian GDP growth is sensitive to eurozone-wide monetary conditions and consumer spending; persistent eurozone weakness or contracting domestic demand would push the probability lower
- ›The contract ladder structure shows traders assign meaningful probability mass to a range from -0.8% to 0.0%, suggesting consensus that modest positive or near-zero growth is possible but not assured
- ›Recent Italian labor market performance and industrial production trends serve as leading indicators; significant deterioration in either would likely compress growth expectations downward
Recently closed in recession
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 16% · 1d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 33% · 2d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%last 88% · 10d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%last 95% · 10d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%last 91% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Recession Worries Shift to 2027 as Fed Holds Firm
While 2026 recession odds sit at just 9¢, the market is pricing a 2027 recession at 41¢. This split-sentiment is a key warning for macro traders, especially as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady.
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.