Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%
Leader sits at 93% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.6%
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above -0.8%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T2.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T1.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.2
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T0.0
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.8%?: Above -0.8%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.8
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.6
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXITGDPYOYA-26JUL30-T-0.2
Analysis
This market is pricing a 94% probability that Italy's year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.8%, meaning traders expect Italy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects modest confidence in stabilization rather than robust growth—the spread of contracts shows meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will reach 0%, with prices declining from 89¢ at that threshold to 94¢ at -0.8%. Italy's economic trajectory depends heavily on eurozone monetary policy, domestic consumption patterns, and labor market resilience. The official Q2 2026 GDP release from ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics), typically published in late August 2026, will resolve this question. Until then, traders are weighting recent inflation trends, European Central Bank policy signals, and Italian employment data as proxies for growth expectations.
- ›Current market pricing implies ~94% confidence in avoiding GDP contraction below -0.8% YoY, but only 89% confidence in growth above 0%—a 5-point spread indicating material uncertainty about the direction of growth
- ›Q2 2026 GDP data will be published by ISTAT in late August 2026, making this a medium-term forecast with roughly 10-12 weeks of economic data accumulation before resolution
- ›Italian GDP growth is sensitive to eurozone-wide monetary conditions and consumer spending; persistent eurozone weakness or contracting domestic demand would push the probability lower
- ›The contract ladder structure shows traders assign meaningful probability mass to a range from -0.8% to 0.0%, suggesting consensus that modest positive or near-zero growth is possible but not assured
- ›Recent Italian labor market performance and industrial production trends serve as leading indicators; significant deterioration in either would likely compress growth expectations downward
Recently closed in recession
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%last 92% · 0d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 0d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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