Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 23, 2026. This market is expiring today with an extremely depressed 2¢ price despite moderate open interest of $2,031, suggesting the market has already priced in a near-certain "No" outcome for Japan's March MoM inflation.
Analysis
This market is expiring today with an extremely depressed 2¢ price despite moderate open interest of $2,031, suggesting the market has already priced in a near-certain "No" outcome for Japan's March MoM inflation. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 4¢ to 2¢ combined with extraordinary realized volatility of 2,242% and risk-adjusted yield of 55,667% indicates either late-breaking economic data or a sharp consensus shift toward sub-0.4% inflation expectations. With zero days to expiry, minimal 24-hour volume of $174, and a narrow 1¢ spread, this market has become illiquid and the resolution should be imminent.
Resolution rules
If the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXJPMOMINF-26APR17-T0.4 yes 100