Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The 15¢ price reflects an extremely low probability that Trump makes zero Mar-a-Lago trips in April 2026, with the "Yes" side offering an astronomical 21,003% implied yield—a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money binary pricing rather than genuine market conviction.
Analysis
The 15¢ price reflects an extremely low probability that Trump makes zero Mar-a-Lago trips in April 2026, with the "Yes" side offering an astronomical 21,003% implied yield—a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money binary pricing rather than genuine market conviction. With only 12 days to expiry and modest $12.9k open interest, the market shows thin liquidity and has already declined 5¢ over seven days, suggesting growing confidence Trump will visit at least once. The 2,329% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (7/10) indicate this is a highly speculative contract where small position sizes could drive outsized price swings near resolution.
Resolution rules
If Trump makes exactly 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026 as President, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLAGODAYS-26APR-0 yes 100