What is the current probability for "Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 97¢ (97% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2.7% and 1562.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Lauren Jewett is priced at an extremely high 97¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and just $207 open interest, suggesting this market lacks liquidity despite the narrow 2¢ spread.

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97¢

Bid/Ask 96/99¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $207·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXLAPRIMARY-01D26-LJEW

Analysis

4d ago

Lauren Jewett is priced at an extremely high 97¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and just $207 open interest, suggesting this market lacks liquidity despite the narrow 2¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—1.0% for Yes versus 2086.4% for No—reflect the lopsided pricing, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful uncertainty about resolution mechanics or late-breaking developments. With 566 days until expiry and no recent volume, this appears to be a thin, potentially stale market where the high probability may not reflect genuine market consensus so much as limited price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Lauren Jewett wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 LA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2.7%

IY (No) 1562.3%

Adj IY 781%

CRI 24

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1562.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	781%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:42:45 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLAPRIMARY-01D26-LJEW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →