Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$452
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Steve Scalise be the Republican nominee for LA-01
Will Steve Scalise be the Republican nominee for LA-01?: Steve Scalise
KXLAPRIMARY-01R26-SSCA
Cluster 2
Will Mike Johnson be the Republican nominee for LA-04
Will Mike Johnson be the Republican nominee for LA-04?: Mike Johnson
KXLAPRIMARY-04R26-MJOH
Cluster 3
Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01
Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?: Lauren Jewett
KXLAPRIMARY-01D26-LJEW
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Michael Echols has a roughly one-in-three chance of becoming the Republican nominee for Louisiana's 5th congressional district. The 34% level suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Echols will secure party support and win the primary election. Key factors driving this probability include the strength of competing candidates in the field, Echols' fundraising and endorsement levels relative to opponents, and his performance in early indicators like polling or previous electoral history in the district. The primary election date—when voters will directly determine the nominee—represents the critical moment that will resolve this uncertainty. Until then, developments such as candidate endorsements, campaign finance reports, or shifts in local political dynamics could meaningfully alter the market's assessment of his nomination prospects.
- ›Crowdedness of the Republican primary field in LA-05 and whether Echols faces one dominant rival or multiple competing candidates
- ›Echols' fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to other Republican candidates through the most recent FEC reporting period
- ›Endorsement patterns from Louisiana Republican Party leadership, local officials, and notable national figures
- ›Polling data from Louisiana's 5th district among Republican primary voters, if available, showing Echols' standing versus opponents
- ›The scheduled date of the Louisiana primary election and any significant campaign events or debate performances before voting occurs
What moved the line
- Jun 20Mike Johnson↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Mike Johnson↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Mike Johnson↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Lauren Jewett↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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