What is the current probability for "Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 1¢ (1% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 19705.3% and 111.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with Monaco's Yes contract trading at just 1¢ despite the team finishing 2nd in Ligue 1 last season, creating an absurd 16,095% implied yield that likely reflects illiquidity rather than fundamental probability.

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1¢

Bid/Ask 7/48¢·Spread 41¢·Vol $0·OI $79·Closes May 17, 2026·25d remaining

KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-ASM

7-day price685 snapshots · 6 regime

38¢7¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market displays extreme mispricing with Monaco's Yes contract trading at just 1¢ despite the team finishing 2nd in Ligue 1 last season, creating an absurd 16,095% implied yield that likely reflects illiquidity rather than fundamental probability. The 39¢ spread and minimal $0 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, while the sharp 7-day decline from 19¢ to 1¢ suggests either a single large bet or a data anomaly rather than genuine market consensus. With only 30 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this contract carries substantial execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the thin liquidity and extreme volatility metrics.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 34¢(Δ -33¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1888.2%Close-time delta 310h

Resolution rules

If Monaco is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 19705.3%

IY (No) 111.6%

Adj IY 19705%

CRI 13

RV 3365%

VR 1.34

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	19705.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	111.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	19705%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3365%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

41¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:34:20 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:23:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-ASM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →