What is the current probability for "Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5932.8% and 370.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 30-cent spread and 4845.8% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 0/30¢·Spread 30¢·Vol $0·OI $20·Closes May 17, 2026·25d remaining

KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-HAC

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 30-cent spread and 4845.8% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless. Le Havre's 20-cent price reflects a reasonable skepticism about a newly promoted side (they just returned to Ligue 1 in 2024-25) finishing top-4, but the market's thin depth and approaching May 2026 expiry leave it vulnerable to manipulation or wide mispricing. The 4/5 cliff risk index suggests binary outcome sensitivity, so any significant news about Le Havre's squad or performance could trigger sharp repricing in this illiquid venue.

Resolution rules

If Le Havre is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5932.8%

IY (No) 370.8%

Adj IY 2966%

CRI 4

Overround 3.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5932.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	370.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2966%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

30¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:34:52 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:23:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-HAC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →