What is the current probability for "Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 221.6% and 9926.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. PSG is priced at an extreme 99¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $506, suggesting this market lacks conviction despite the lofty probability.

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99¢

Bid/Ask 87/100¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $506·Closes May 17, 2026·25d remaining

KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-PSG

7-day price308 snapshots · 4 regime

98¢87¢ current

Apr 886¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

PSG is priced at an extreme 99¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $506, suggesting this market lacks conviction despite the lofty probability. The massive 8,116% implied yield on the "No" side combined with a 71% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (7) indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine uncertainty about PSG's top-4 finish. With only 30 days to resolution and the price having drifted down just 1¢ over seven days, this appears to be a dead market where the extreme odds reflect thin liquidity rather than fundamental analysis.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78Close-time delta 310h

Resolution rules

If PSG is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 221.6%

IY (No) 9926.0%

Adj IY 9926%

CRI 7

RV 88%

VR 0.59

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	221.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9926.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9926%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	88%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.59	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:34:52 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:23:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-PSG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →