What is the current probability for "Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 834.3% and 2636.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with Lens trading at 99¢ despite zero 24-hour volume and only $161 open interest, suggesting illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine conviction.

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99¢

Bid/Ask 64/99¢·Spread 35¢·Vol $0·OI $161·Closes May 17, 2026·25d remaining

KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-RCL

7-day price615 snapshots · 5 regime

95¢64¢ current

Apr 860¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with Lens trading at 99¢ despite zero 24-hour volume and only $161 open interest, suggesting illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine conviction. The 569.6% implied yield on the Yes side and massive 3101.1% yield on the No side indicate the market is severely out of equilibrium, with the 17¢ spread reflecting thin liquidity rather than genuine uncertainty. With 27 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a stale quote in a low-liquidity venue that hasn't traded meaningfully, making the 99¢ price unreliable as a probability estimate.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78Close-time delta 310h

Resolution rules

If Lens is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 834.3%

IY (No) 2636.8%

Adj IY 2637%

CRI 2

RV 613%

VR 2.25

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	834.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2636.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2637%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	613%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.25	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

35¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:33:53 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:23:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1TOP4-26-RCL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →