Best AI in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Best AI in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price implying only 9% probability that OpenAI holds the top LLM ranking by April 25, 2026—just 6 days away—despite the Yes side offering an astronomical 83,364% implied yield.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price implying only 9% probability that OpenAI holds the top LLM ranking by April 25, 2026—just 6 days away—despite the Yes side offering an astronomical 83,364% implied yield. The 2,633% realized volatility and 13 Cliff Risk Index suggest recent sharp price swings (moving from 4¢ to 7¢ over 7 days), indicating either late-breaking information about competitor models or speculative positioning ahead of imminent resolution. With $39k in 24-hour volume and tight 1¢ spreads, liquidity is reasonable for such a short-dated contract, but the risk-adjusted yield of 59,547% signals this is likely a tail-risk bet rather than a fundamental valuation.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLLM1-26APR25-OPEN yes 100