Best AI in Dec 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$40K
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Best AI in Dec 2026
Cluster 2
Best AI in Jun 2026
Analysis
The 55% probability reflects trader expectations that Claude will be designated as the best-performing AI system by December 2026, based on a weighted average of multiple contracts. This assessment weighs Claude's current market dominance (it reached 95% in the May 2026 assessment on Kalshi) against competition from other systems like ChatGPT and newer entrants. The probability could shift significantly based on benchmarks released in the coming months, major capability announcements from competing labs, and how "best" is ultimately defined or measured by market participants. Key drivers include performance on standardized AI evaluation suites, real-world adoption metrics, and breakthrough capabilities in reasoning, coding, or multimodal tasks. The resolution date of December 31, 2026 means uncertainty will decline as empirical performance data accumulates through the year, particularly around major AI conference announcements and quarterly capability releases from leading organizations.
- ›Claude currently leads with 55% vs. ChatGPT at 16%, suggesting confidence in Claude's technical trajectory but meaningful credence in competitor improvement
- ›The May 2026 contract showed Claude at 95%, indicating either market confidence in stability or potential for rapid shifts as new data emerges
- ›Third and fourth-ranked systems occupy 9% combined, revealing concentration risk around the two market leaders
- ›Resolution depends on how "best" is operationalized—benchmarks vs. adoption vs. capability demonstrations may not align
- ›Approximately 7 months remain for new model releases, capability announcements, and evaluation results that could substantially alter probabilities
What moved the line
- May 30Claude↑16pp64→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Claude↑7pp80→87¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Gemini↓6pp16→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Claude↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Claude↓3pp87→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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