Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant bullish movement on the "No" side, with prices declining 18 cents over seven days as confidence in Lutnick's tenure has strengthened.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bullish movement on the "No" side, with prices declining 18 cents over seven days as confidence in Lutnick's tenure has strengthened. The extreme implied yield of 2,081.7% on the "Yes" outcome reflects the sharp 4-cent spread and low absolute price, creating outsized percentage returns despite modest dollar movements. With only $512 in 24-hour volume against $10,121 open interest and a moderate cliff risk index of 3, liquidity is thin relative to position size, suggesting potential slippage for larger trades in this 45-day window.
Resolution rules
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUN01 yes 100