Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before September?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before September?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, declining from 52¢ to 43¢ (a 17% drop), suggesting reduced conviction in an early departure despite the extreme 352.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, declining from 52¢ to 43¢ (a 17% drop), suggesting reduced conviction in an early departure despite the extreme 352.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The 243% realized volatility and elevated info arrival rate of 0.6/h indicate this is an actively traded, information-sensitive contract, though the low 24-hour volume of $469.23 relative to $24,250 open interest suggests liquidity could be thin for larger positions. With 137 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in a base case of Lutnick remaining in the role, though the high yield reflects meaningful tail risk of a departure.
Resolution rules
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01 yes 100