Will Conor McGregor fight next?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Conor McGregor fight next?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market has experienced significant recent selling pressure, declining 29% over seven days from 62¢ to 44¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around a McGregor-Holloway matchup occurring within the 624-day window.
Analysis
This market has experienced significant recent selling pressure, declining 29% over seven days from 62¢ to 44¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around a McGregor-Holloway matchup occurring within the 624-day window. The 35% current price offers an attractive 74.4% implied yield for Yes positions, but the $0 24-hour volume and wide 18¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity that could make entry/exit challenging. With only $4,109 in open interest and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the recent price drop may reflect genuine belief that McGregor won't face Holloway rather than informed market consensus.
Also on polymarket at 62¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Max Holloway, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT-28-MHOL yes 100