Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility and illiquidity despite moderate open interest of $10,445, with realized volatility at 1605% and a sharp 7-day price decline from 53¢ to 40¢ that hasn't yet reflected in the current 56¢ quote, suggesting potential stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility and illiquidity despite moderate open interest of $10,445, with realized volatility at 1605% and a sharp 7-day price decline from 53¢ to 40¢ that hasn't yet reflected in the current 56¢ quote, suggesting potential stale pricing. The 266.9% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 205-day time horizon, indicating either significant mispricing or market uncertainty about Seattle's playoff contention prospects. With zero 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity for confident position-taking, and the elevated cliff risk index warrants caution on directional bets.
Resolution rules
If Seattle has 90+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T90 yes 100