What is the current probability for "Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3352.5% and 5.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. San Jose's 4¢ price reflects a heavily underdog positioning with an extreme 3,317% implied yield for Yes holders, though the modest $675 daily volume and $11,817 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify volatility.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5,016.58·OI $19,046.58·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining

KXMLSCUP-26-SJ

7-day price12 snapshots · 41 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 111¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

San Jose's 4¢ price reflects a heavily underdog positioning with an extreme 3,317% implied yield for Yes holders, though the modest $675 daily volume and $11,817 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify volatility. The contract has doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days, signaling either shifting sentiment toward the Earthquakes or speculative positioning ahead of the 2026 season. With 264 days to expiry and a 24 Cliff Risk Index, this remains a high-risk, high-reward bet dependent on significant roster improvements or unexpected playoff performance from a historically struggling franchise.

Resolution rules

If San Jose is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3352.5%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 1257%

CRI 24

Overround -0.4%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3352.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1257%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:55:22 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSCUP-26-SJ yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →