Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami win the MLS Cup
Will Miami win the MLS Cup?: Miami
KXMLSCUP-26-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Vancouver win the MLS Cup
Will Vancouver win the MLS Cup?: Vancouver
KXMLSCUP-26-VAN
Cluster 3
Will Nashville win the MLS Cup
Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?: Nashville
KXMLSCUP-26-NSH
Cluster 4
Will Houston win the MLS Cup
Will Houston win the MLS Cup?: Houston
KXMLSCUP-26-HOU
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup?: Los Angeles F
KXMLSCUP-26-LAFC
Cluster 6
Will Chicago win the MLS Cup
Will Chicago win the MLS Cup?: Chicago
KXMLSCUP-26-CHI
Cluster 7
Will Cincinnati win the MLS Cup
Will Cincinnati win the MLS Cup?: Cincinnati
KXMLSCUP-26-CIN
Analysis
This 12% probability indicates that market participants believe Los Angeles Football Club has roughly a 1-in-8 chance of winning the 2026 MLS Cup. The team's relatively low implied probability reflects positioning against stronger favorites like Miami (26%) and Vancouver (13%). The main factors influencing this forecast are LAFC's current regular-season performance, roster health heading into the playoffs, and their historical track record in knockout competitions. The MLS Cup will be decided in December 2026, which represents the primary resolution point for this market. Between now and then, playoff seeding, head-to-head matchups, and injury developments will likely shift probabilities. The low 24-hour trading volume ($44) suggests limited recent market activity around this specific contract.
- ›LAFC's regular-season points total and current playoff seeding relative to other MLS teams
- ›Recent injury status or roster changes among key players that affect playoff readiness
- ›Historical performance in MLS Cup playoffs, including home/away records and goalkeeper consistency
- ›Quality of strength of schedule in remaining regular-season matches before playoff qualification
- ›Head-to-head records and recent form against the current favorite teams (Miami, Vancouver) in the projection
What moved the line
- Aug 22Miami↑3pp20→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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