What is the current probability for "Chicago Fire vs Kansas City Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Chicago Fire vs Kansas City Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 23215.5% and 286.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Chicago Fire vs Kansas City Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Chicago Fire vs Kansas City Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Chicago Fire vs Kansas City Winner?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $3,291.75·OI $4,036.95·Closes May 10, 2026·14d remaining

KXMLSGAME-26APR25CHISKC-SKC

7-day price52 snapshots · 15 regime

14¢10¢ current

Apr 198¢Apr 25

Resolution rules

If Kansas City wins the Chicago Fire vs Kansas City professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 23215.5%

IY (No) 286.6%

Adj IY 20894%

CRI 9

RV 603%

VR 0.35

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	23215.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	286.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	20894%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	603%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 9:03:57 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 8:53:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25CHISKC-SKC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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