Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
965 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “What will be Tyreek Hill's next team”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City
KXSB-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC
Cluster 2
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 3
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 4
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This 31% probability represents the market's assessment that Chicago Fire FC will defeat Sporting Kansas City in their upcoming match. The current level reflects Chicago's status as a moderate underdog, with Kansas City historically being the stronger team in head-to-head matchups. Key drivers of movement would be roster changes, recent team performance, injuries to key players, or home-field advantage considerations. The actual match result will definitively resolve this contract when the game concludes. Current probability may shift based on team news released in the days leading up to kickoff, as well as any changes to starting lineups or tactical adjustments announced by either club.
- ›Chicago Fire FC's win-loss record and goal differential in the current MLS season compared to Sporting Kansas City's record
- ›Injury status of key players for both teams, particularly attacking and defensive contributors
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between the two clubs in recent seasons
- ›Whether the match is played at Chicago's or Kansas City's home stadium
- ›Recent form and momentum of both teams in their last 5-10 matches prior to kickoff
What moved the line
- Jun 23Kansas City↓16pp31→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Kansas City↓14pp40→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Kansas City↑6pp35→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Kansas City↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Patrick Mahomes↑5pp54→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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