Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
6 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
920 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City
KXSB-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Cluster 2
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 3
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 4
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This 23% probability reflects the implied likelihood that Sporting Kansas City defeats Chicago Fire FC in an upcoming MLS regular season match. The current price is informed by Kansas City's recent form, roster composition, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include Kansas City's historical performance against Chicago, recent injury reports, and current league standings. The probability would shift materially based on confirmed lineups released before kickoff, as roster changes significantly impact team performance. The match itself will provide definitive resolution once played.
- ›Kansas City's recent form and goal differential compared to Chicago Fire FC's current season performance
- ›Chicago Fire FC's home or away status and historical results in that venue against Kansas City
- ›Confirmed starting lineups and availability of key players, particularly Kansas City's attacking personnel
- ›Weather conditions and surface quality on match day if outdoor factors materially affect play style
- ›Kansas City's recent injury list and roster changes in the 7-10 days preceding the match
What moved the line
- Aug 1Patrick Mahomes↓10pp88→78¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Patrick Mahomes↑7pp82→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Kansas City↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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