Will Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $52 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 0/3¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $52·Closes Dec 14, 2026·237d remaining
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-MONS

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $52 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 3625% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of thin markets where even minimal position sizing creates outsized percentage returns, though the risk-adjusted yield of 1813% still suggests meaningful underpricing if Yamaha has any legitimate championship contention odds. With 242 days to expiry and a wide 3¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative long-tail market with minimal institutional participation rather than a genuine pricing discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP wins the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3700.5%
IY (No) 6.4%
Adj IY 1850%
CRI 24
Overround 0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3700.5%
IY (No)6.4%
Adj IY1850%
CRI24
Overround0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:47:00 PM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-MONS yes 100

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