Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$302
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 14, 2026
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ducati Lenovo Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Ducati Lenovo Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Ducati Lenovo Team
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-DUCA
Cluster 2
Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Aprilia Racing
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-APRI
Cluster 3
Will Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Cluster 4
Will Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Cluster 5
Will Red Bull KTM Factory Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Cluster 6
Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Trackhouse Racing
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-TRAC
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Trackhouse Racing will accumulate the most points across its entire team roster in the 2026 MotoGP season to win the constructors' championship. At 17%, the market is assigning Trackhouse relatively low odds compared to established powerhouses like Ducati, KTM, and others. The current probability likely reflects Trackhouse's historical performance and rider roster compared to competitors, though mid-season performance data and rider consistency will significantly influence this estimate through the year. The 2026 MotoGP season conclusion in November will definitively resolve this outcome.
- ›Trackhouse's 2025 season performance and points accumulation compared to the championship frontrunners
- ›The quality and experience of Trackhouse's contracted riders for the 2026 season relative to competing teams
- ›Motorcycle reliability and development pace—whether Trackhouse's bikes remain competitive or fall further behind leading manufacturers
- ›Mid-season race results and points standings as of summer 2026, which would provide early indicators of championship viability
- ›Injuries or departures of key Trackhouse personnel or riders that could impact team performance through the season
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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