Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 14, 2026
140 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Aprilia Racing
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-APRI
Cluster 2
Will Ducati Lenovo Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Ducati Lenovo Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Ducati Lenovo Team
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-DUCA
Cluster 3
Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Trackhouse Racing
KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-TRAC
Cluster 4
Will Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Cluster 5
Will Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Cluster 6
Will Red Bull KTM Factory Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Analysis
This represents the market's estimated likelihood that Trackhouse Racing will accumulate the most constructor points across all 2026 MotoGP races to win the teams' championship. Currently priced at 17%, the team is positioned as a mid-tier contender behind Aprilia (71%) and Ducati (16%), reflecting its historical performance level and rider lineup relative to established factory teams. The main driver of this probability is Trackhouse's resource constraints compared to full manufacturer-backed operations; however, strong rider performance or strategic upgrades could shift the calculation. The championship will be determined by final race results in late 2026, though mid-season standings by August-September would indicate whether Trackhouse remains a realistic contender or has fallen significantly behind the leaders.
- ›Trackhouse's constructor points total through mid-2026 races compared to Aprilia, Ducati, and other frontrunners
- ›Rider performance consistency and injury status of Trackhouse's MotoGP roster across the season
- ›Technical development and engine/chassis updates Trackhouse introduces relative to competitor improvements
- ›Grid positioning and race-by-race results in high-value events that contribute disproportionately to constructor standings
- ›Regulatory or technical changes implemented mid-season that could advantageously or disadvantageously affect Trackhouse's aerodynamic or powertrain setup
What moved the line
- Jul 26Aprilia Racing↑27pp5→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Trackhouse Racing↓6pp9→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 25Trackhouse Racing↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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