Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $600 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $600 billion?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with the No side offering an absurd 17,643% implied yield versus just 394% for Yes, despite the 85¢ price suggesting high confidence in Musk exceeding $600B.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with the No side offering an absurd 17,643% implied yield versus just 394% for Yes, despite the 85¢ price suggesting high confidence in Musk exceeding $600B. The microscopic $2,623 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading—the market likely lacks sufficient depth to execute meaningful trades at quoted prices. With only 14 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 7, this appears to be a thin, potentially abandoned market where the extreme No-side yield reflects the difficulty of actually shorting a low-probability outcome rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk's net worth is above $600 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T600 yes 100