Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $610 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $610 billion?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,503.55 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,503.55 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The astronomical 9,323% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—such yields are only rational if resolution is imminent, yet the market doesn't close for 14 days, suggesting thin liquidity is distorting probabilities rather than reflecting genuine market consensus. The sharp 15-cent rally over seven days combined with 212% realized volatility and a 0.9/hour information arrival rate indicates this micro-market is highly reactive to Musk-related news, making the current price more a function of recent sentiment than fundamental valuation.
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk's net worth is above $610 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T610 yes 100