Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing June 30, 2026. The market is pricing Mitchell's 2nd Team All-Pro selection at an extremely high 85% probability with a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting significant disagreement between buyers and sellers despite thin liquidity of just $220 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing Mitchell's 2nd Team All-Pro selection at an extremely high 85% probability with a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting significant disagreement between buyers and sellers despite thin liquidity of just $220 open interest. The asymmetric implied yields (100.2% for Yes vs. 2388.9% for No) indicate the No side is severely underpriced relative to risk, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if Mitchell's actual probability is materially lower than 85%. Price has surged 11¢ over seven days with 289% realized volatility and a high cliff risk index of 5, suggesting either new information about Mitchell's season performance or positioning ahead of the 75-day expiry.
Resolution rules
If Donovan Mitchell is selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-DMIT yes 100