Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Applied Intuition's IPO contract shows a sharp 21% price decline over seven days (19¢ to 15¢), now trading at a 15% probability on Polymarket with an extreme 802% annualized yield on the Yes side—typical of low-liquidity binary events.
Analysis
Applied Intuition's IPO contract shows a sharp 21% price decline over seven days (19¢ to 15¢), now trading at a 15% probability on Polymarket with an extreme 802% annualized yield on the Yes side—typical of low-liquidity binary events. The 3¢ cross-venue gap (Polymarket 15¢ vs. Kalshi 12¢) and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest thin liquidity despite $6.7M open interest, while the 846% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk index indicate this market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around the company's IPO timeline. With 258 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 2.1 events per hour, the recent downward move may reflect skepticism about a 2026 IPO completion, though the wide bid-ask spread (2¢) makes execution challenging for retail traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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sf trade 0x76d92e422d9a4c1d9ceeea7445fa709df9df03e45b6372623abec7254caee3a9 yes 100